The TPP is dead. Long live the…?
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was supposed to be the centrepiece of the next stage of globalisation. Instead, it's American electoral roadkill, run over by> READ MORE
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was supposed to be the centrepiece of the next stage of globalisation. Instead, it's American electoral roadkill, run over by> READ MORE
Malaysia is facing a perfect storm of alleged deep-seated corruption, proliferating political protests, a currency falling to levels last seen in 1997, and a sharp> READ MORE
American politics usually have limited impact on the rest of the world. But what’s happening in the U.S. right now has the potential to affect Singapore – in> READ MORE
For global markets, Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory was a big deal. Few investors expected it – so asset prices have probably moved a lot more than they> READ MORE
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to make America "great again". One of the industries that will experience this greatness is the global energy> READ MORE
Others market experts are struggling to be upbeat. Kim Iskyan, who runs Singaporebased market research firm Truewealth, tells Barron’s Asia that he advises> READ MORE
Kim Iskyan, founder of investment research firm Truewealth Publishing, tells Barron’s Asia he thinks consumer and export oriented names in Hong Kong and China> READ MORE
Against all expectations, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States yesterday. And markets didn't like it. "Donald Trump's election victory is> READ MORE
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was supposed to be the centrepiece of the next stage of globalisation. Instead, it’s American electoral roadkill, run over by the rumbling truck of the U.S. presidency-in-waiting of Donald Trump.
But Asia won’t be shedding any tears for the TPP. In particular, China – which was conspicuously left out of the TPP – is already filling the void.
The end of the TPP
Negotiations for the TPP started in 2006. It was signed by all 12 participating countries, including the U.S., Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam, this February. (It was not yet implemented, though, pending ratification by some countries, including the U.S.) The deal was meant to strengthen economic ties between member countries, reduce tariffs, foster trade and support economic growth. It also included regulations on intellectual property rights, state owned enterprises, competition and the environment.
All together, these 12 countries account for approximately 40 percent of world GDP and 25 percent of global exports. The World Bank estimates the agreement would have raised GDP by an average of 1.1 percent in each country by 2030.
But Trump doesn’t think much of the deal. At one point during his presidential campaign, he said, “”The TPP is a horrible deal… It’s a deal that was designed for China to come in, as they always do, through the back door and totally take advantage of everyone.” Shortly after winning the U.S. presidential election, Trump announced that one of the first things he will do as president is withdraw from the TPP. Without U.S. involvement, the deal is dead.
Trump’s “America first” rhetoric suggests that the U.S. may become more isolationist, especially with respect to trade deals. Bringing jobs back to the U.S. – generally from parts of the world where labour costs are lower – was a centrepiece of his presidential campaign.
China, though, sees opportunity where Donald Trump sees danger. Chinese president Xi Jinping recently said that “China will not shut the door to the outside world but will open it even wider.” This suggests that China will be happy to replace the U.S. in any potential trade deals. And that will likely speed up the ongoing shift of the global political and economic centre, from west to east.
How will this happen? Here are three deals that could fill the void left by the TPP.
1. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
RCEP negotiations started in November 2012 as a way to harmonise and streamline the trade deals that ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) has with free trade partners India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. (ASEAN is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos and Vietnam.)
The deal is still being negotiated with the next round of negotiations scheduled for next week in Jakarta, Indonesia.
If the deal happens, RCEP will be a mega trade deal. The 16 countries involved account for more than a quarter of global trade and a quarter of global GDP. Plus, with China, India and Indonesia involved, it would cover almost half of the world’s population.
The big missing piece is the U.S., which doesn’t have a free trade agreement with ASEAN. In theory, it could join the deal at a later point.
But the U.S. may never become party to the deal because RCEP standards for trade, labour practices and the environment aren’t up to American expectations of a trade deal – standards which some people say was one of the reasons behind the complexity of the TPP.
The RCEP will be inclusive and very big, but the depth of the agreement will fall short of that of the TPP. RCEP would eliminate, or reduce, tariffs on thousands of goods and services, and cover investment rules, economic cooperation and intellectual property rights. But unlike the TPP it would brush over key issues including state-owned enterprises, the environment and the digital economy.
Of the three deals that we’ll talk about here, RCEP looks most likely to eventually go into effect.
2. Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)
Proposed by the U.S. in 2006, FTAAP would involve the 21 APEC member countries. China also made a push for the agreement at an APEC summit in 2014 (likely in response to the ongoing TPP negotiations, which excluded China).
APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) focuses on economic issues involving Pacific Rim countries. That means the FTAAP would include Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, as well as China and the U.S. Its ultimate goal would be to harmonise all the regional and bilateral trade agreements that already exist between APEC members – often called a “spaghetti bowl” or “noodle bowl” of trade agreements.
If it were to happen, FTAAP would be the trade deal to end all trade deals. It would encompass the world’s two biggest economies (the U.S. and China), the world’s “factory” in China and Southeast Asia, an enormous base of natural resources, and the world’s biggest consumer economy.
According to a 2014 study, the FTAAP could result in income gains for member nations of nearly US$2 trillion by 2025 – which would be nearly 2 percent of world GDP in 2025.
FTAAP is TPP on steroids. If President-elect Trump – and the people who voted him into office – didn’t like TPP, they certainly won’t like FTAAP. So it’s unlikely to happen, at least with American participation, for some years.
3. Bilateral trade agreements… or something else
Even though he wants to cancel the TPP, Trump has not written off trade with Asia. Instead, he said he would look into doing more bilateral (that is, involving only two countries, instead of multiple) trade deals with Asian countries.
Part of this is that Trump wants to “repatriate” manufacturing jobs to the U.S. – to help “Make America Great Again,” in the words of his campaign slogan. American companies that currently manufacture elsewhere – at a lower cost than in the U.S. – would need to be persuaded to bring jobs back. If this happens, one of the biggest losers – via higher prices – will be the American consumer, which has been the biggest beneficiary of lower prices thanks to the globalisation of production.
Most likely is that Trump will try to negotiate a new trade deal, or a series of trade deals, with Asian countries, maybe even China. In the meantime, much of Asia stands to lose from Trump’s possible policies. We wrote about this in a free report that’s available here.
Malaysia is facing a perfect storm of alleged deep-seated corruption, proliferating political protests, a currency falling to levels last seen in 1997, and a sharp deterioration in its international trade prospects. So it’s not a surprise that Malaysia’s stock market is down 4 percent so far this year.
In recent days, thousands of protestors gathered in Malaysia’s capital city Kuala Lumpur to call (yet again) for the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Razak. He’s been under fire for much of the past two years for his central role in an alleged money laundering scandal at Malaysia’s state development fund, 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB).
The latest on the scandal
The last time we discussed 1MDB, the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) had just moved to seize over US$1 billion in assets that were allegedly purchased using money laundered from 1MDB. The U.S. is just one of at least five countries investigating the fund.
The DoJ believes that over US$3.5 billion was misappropriated. Swiss authorities say it’s more than US$4 billion. And the first conviction of a person linked to the fund recently occurred in Singapore – a private banker was charged with forging documents and not disclosing suspicious transactions from a Malaysian client linked to the 1MDB scandal.
Najib continues to deny any wrongdoing on his part (even though US$681 million was deposited into his personal bank account a few years ago… a “donation” from the Saudi royal family), while his government remains in power. And it seems likely to stay there at least until the next election in 2018. What’s more, Najib has cracked down on opposition to the government, especially over 1MDB.
Earlier this month a member of Malaysia’s parliament was sentenced to 18 months in prison for disclosing classified information related to 1MDB. A Malaysian human rights organisation said that the conviction “will create a dangerous chill on free speech and result in a more repressive, opaque and unaccountable government.”
In many countries, an international scandal of the scope (and audacity) of 1MDB would have resulted in a number of high-level resignations (if not convictions) – of the prime minister in particular. But Najib seems to have drawn strength from the scandal by solidifying his position and firing those in government who oppose to him.
So far only a handful of heads have rolled, including the country’s attorney general, who reportedly planned to announce misappropriation charges against Najib. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the newly appointed attorney general has cleared Najib of any unlawful activity.
But given the far-flung and complex nature of the scandal, it may take years to conclude the investigations. This means 1MDB will be in the spotlight for some time.
A Trump presidency likely to weigh on Malaysian growth
Despite this cloud, the World Bank projected in late June that Malaysia’s economy would grow 4.5 percent in 2017, compared to 4.4 percent for 2016. But this forecast was based in part on “a new generation of regional [trade] agreements including… the TPP.”
The recent election of Donald Trump as U.S. president will likely hurt Malaysia’s exports and economy. Trump has said that on the first day of his presidency, he will “issue a notification of intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership [TPP], a potential disaster for our country.”
That means that anticipated growth in trade from the TPP – and the ripple effects of the deal – won’t boost Malaysia’s economic growth in 2017 and beyond.
As we’ve written before, Trump’s efforts to roll back globalisation – if they’re implemented – will be particularly damaging for emerging Asian economies, not least Malaysia. The U.S. is Malaysia’s third-biggest export destination, after Singapore and China, as shown below.
Worse still, the U.S. rejection of the TPP means that the deal is dead in the water for all 12 countries involved. For the TPP to take hold, it requires ratification by at least 6 of the 12 nations, and they must account for 85 percent of the group’s economic output. Without U.S. involvement – and unless the remaining countries renegotiate the original agreement – the TPP will not happen.
Trump’s policies could prove to be a significant drag on Malaysia’s trade relations – not just with the U.S., but other Asia-Pacific countries involved in the TPP (including Singapore, Malaysia’s biggest export destination). According to the World Bank, Malaysia’s exports are equivalent to a high 71 percent of the country’s GDP (compared to 176 percent for Singapore, 22 percent for China, and 12 percent for the U.S.).
The potential damage to Malaysia is now partly being reflected in the weakness of its currency. The ringgit was one of the world’s worst performing currencies in 2015. And Trump’s election victory has pushed it back down to near 2015 lows against the U.S. dollar – and it’s getting close to levels last seen during 1997’s Asian Financial Crisis.
A weaker ringgit can benefit exporters by making their goods and services cheaper when priced in foreign currencies. But to prevent further weakening, Malaysia’s central bank suspended all offshore ringgit trading. This indicates that funds had been leaving the country at an accelerating rate.
Protests seem ineffective as stock market remains resilient
Prime Minister Najib has endured the worst of the fallout from 1MDB, and will probably continue in his post. Ironically, this has provided a degree of market stability. And his continued reign is likely to provide some certainty to investors and financial markets.
The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the last 12 months – the KLCI is down 3 percent, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 3 percent. But it’s significantly outperformed emerging markets over the past five years, as shown below. And remarkably, over 1-year and 5-year periods, the KLCI has been substantially less volatile than emerging markets overall.
As we’ve previously written, the KLCI is a defensive market with a large proportion of companies that are less sensitive to economic swings. This explains the KLCI’s relative lack of volatility.
But it also underlines the resilience of Malaysia’s stock market. A lot of foreign investors stay away from markets plagued by scandal. But there has been enough domestic investment – from Malaysia’s local pension funds – to keep the market afloat.
And the worst may be passed. In September, political risk analysts Global Risk Insights said that “there are signs that the country has seen off the worst of its downturn,” and that “the risks of doing business in such a climate continue to be outweighed by the attractive tax incentives offered by the government, Malaysia’s strategic proximity to the primary Asian markets, and its consumers’ growing spending power.”
As we said before, Malaysia’s stock market may show that it’s out of the woods if it holds steady, or rallies, during the next round of scandal revelations. That could signal that all the bad news is already priced in to the market.
But Trump, and his aversion to trade deals, adds uncertainty to Malaysia’s economic outlook. Malaysia isn’t out of the woods yet.
American politics usually have limited impact on the rest of the world. But what’s happening in the U.S. right now has the potential to affect Singapore – in particular – because of the anti-free trade stance of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Trade through Singapore accounted for 326% of the country’s GDP in 2015 – the third-highest ratio in the world, after Hong Kong and Luxembourg. In fact, that figure has been at 300% or higher for Singapore since 1976, according to data from the World Bank (except for 1986 when it was 295%). The trade-to-GDP ratio reflects how open a country is to international trade – and it also shows how much an economy relies on trade.
Since trade plays such an outsized role in Singapore’s economy, any threat or change to the global trade regime has the potential to have a bigger impact on Singapore’s economy than just about anywhere else in the world.
With that in mind, here are three ways a Trump presidency could impact Singapore:
1. No more TPP
In October 2015, the U.S. government signed the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) along with 11 other nations, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. The TPP’s goal is to make it easier for the participating countries to trade with each other by reducing or removing tariffs and other barriers to trade.
The World Bank has estimated that the agreement could raise GDP by an average of 1.1% in each participating country by 2030. The 12 signatory countries account for approximately 40% of world GDP and 25% of global exports. That’s a lot of potential trade that could benefit Singapore.
But in Trump’s eyes the TPP is “a terrible deal” for the U.S. One of his biggest issues with the deal is that he said that he thinks China (which is not a TPP signatory) would somehow benefit from the TPP through “the back door and totally take advantage of everyone.” (He may be right about that, as we wrote here.)
And now that Trump will be the next U.S. president, the deal is dead in the water. The signatories in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, that hoped the deal would increase trade and grow their economies, will be the big losers in Trump’s ongoing issues with China.
2. A U.S.-China trade war
On the campaign trail, Trump took a hard stance on a wide range of policies. Most relevant to Singapore were his claims that Asia – specifically China – is a main cause of America’s problems. He thinks Asia has stolen America’s manufacturing jobs.
He also thinks China has been intentionally manipulating its currency lower, in order to make its goods cheaper to the world. As a result, Trump has said that he wants to slap import tariffs on Chinese goods to make U.S. goods more competitive.
This could bring the two countries closer to a trade war, in which they’d put tariffs or quotas on each other’s imports and exports. This wouldn’t be good for anyone – including Singapore. That’s because higher tariffs or quotas will slow global trade. And, as mentioned, few countries benefit from global trade more than Singapore.
Even though Singapore is not a major manufacturing centre, a lot of what is produced in other Asian countries passes through Singapore on its way overseas. A slowdown in Asian manufacturing means a slowdown in Singapore trade.
3. A shift in the Singapore-U.S. trade relationship
The U.S. is Singapore’s fourth-largest trading partner as measured by total trade (imports plus exports). Trade between the two countries is dominated by the exchange of different kinds of machinery and commercial services, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
(China is Singapore’s biggest trading partner. This again shows how much of an impact a trade war between Singapore’s largest and fourth-largest trading partners would have on the local economy.)
Under Trump, the U.S. may decide to encourage more manufacturing at home. Or, it could impose new, higher tariffs on goods produced anywhere in Asia, not just China. In either scenario, Singapore’s trade relationship with the U.S. would change for the worse, at least from Singapore’s perspective.
Or… it might not be that bad
Of course, Trump may have been all rice and no chicken on the campaign trail. He may not follow through on everything (or even anything) he said or threatened. He is known for speaking off the cuff and taking back things he previously said.
Plus, he was a successful businessman. If he likes a deal, he’ll take it. So despite all his bluster, Trump may end up taking a more pragmatic approach to the U.S.’s trade relationship with Asia once he takes office.
But based on what he’s already said, the new American president could cause some major headaches for Singapore.
For all the details on what a President Trump will mean for Singapore and the rest of Asia, and how you can protect your portfolio, make sure to read our free report on how “Asia is Trumped!” You can download your copy here.
For global markets, Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory was a big deal. Few investors expected it – so asset prices have probably moved a lot more than they would have had Hillary Clinton became the American president.
And of course there are winners – and losers.
Stock markets overall have barely moved. The MSCI All Country World Index, which reflects global stock markets, is up just 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite is up 2 percent and the S&P 500 has gained 3 percent since the election. The Russian stock market is up nearly 5 percent.
As a whole, Asia has suffered, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan index down 5 percent. Within Asia, the biggest decliners were India and the Philippines, both down 9 percent. The Singapore stock market is down 2 percent. (For the sake of consistency, we show stock market returns in U.S. dollar terms.)
What happened? As Bloomberg explained on Monday, “Global funds sold about $11 billion of equities and bonds in Asia’s emerging markets after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election as expectations for his economic policies sent Treasury yields higher and sparked the dollar’s strongest rally in eight years.”
What this means is that investors are expecting a Trump government to do a lot more deficit spending (that is, borrow more to spend on things like infrastructure). This will increase demand for the dollar – and may push up inflation.
Meanwhile, and partly because of this, markets are expecting the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates in December, for the first time since last December.
These factors have contributed to a stronger dollar – and lower bond prices (as a bond’s yield rises, its price falls). As shown in the graph above, global bond prices are down 4 percent – which, in the world of bonds, is an enormous move.
Also, sectoral performance says a lot about the expectations of a Trump government. As we anticipated, banks’ and brokerages’ share prices are up strongly… the S&P 500 financials index has risen 11 percent, while a global financial stock index has jumped almost 5 percent.
But the shares of utility companies (which are very dependent on interest rates… higher interest rates make these stocks less attractive) are down 6 percent.
Meanwhile, commodity prices have risen, as reflected in the 4 percent increase in the S&P GSCI Index, which shows the performance of major investable commodities. Usually, when the U.S. dollar rises in value, commodity prices fall. (This is because commodities are priced in U.S. dollars – so for everywhere in the world but the U.S., a stronger dollar means that commodities are more expensive in local terms.)
However, in part because a Trump government is expected to be hungry for commodities, overall commodity prices have risen. (The price of oil is up 7 percent; yesterday we forecasted that oil and natural gas will be among the winners of a Trump government.) Gold and silver are down sharply, though.
And behind a lot of these movements is the U.S. dollar, which has appreciated 4 percent since Donald Trump was elected. The Singapore dollar has fallen 3 percent against the U.S. dollar, and Malaysia’s ringgit has fallen 5 percent. And the Mexican peso – Mexico was a favourite target of Trump during the election campaign and may be a big loser if he makes good on some of his campaign promises – is down 10 percent versus the greenback.
Of course, today’s winners – it’s been all of two weeks since the election results – may not be tomorrow’s winners. But so far, the U.S. dollar, banks and oil are all happy about the Trump election victory. And Asia is hurting… see our report here on why Asia stands to be a big loser in the world of a Trump government.
(You can read about what sectors of the American economy might benefit from a Trump presidency, looking beyond the first two weeks, here.)
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised to make America “great again”. One of the industries that will experience this greatness is the global energy sector.
Many of Trump’s views on oil, gas, coal and clean energy – or, at any rate, those views enunciated during his presidential campaign – are very different from what’s in place now. And if his plans are implemented, they’ll change a lot of things.
The biggest winners will be oil and gas
“America First” is how Trump describes his energy policy. He wants the U.S. to be completely energy independent. That means using more of the country’s own natural resources instead of relying on imports from overseas trading partners such as OPEC – which supplied 31 percent of all U.S. oil imports in 2015.
Trump repeatedly talked up oil, natural gas and coal on the campaign trail. Trump said he wants to “unleash America’s $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves” – partly to bring about the 400,000 new jobs that he thinks the sector could create. To do this, Trump said he’d remove regulations that inhibit energy production – like allowing companies to operate on federal lands.
And judging by his campaign’s economic advisory team, which included owners of some of the biggest oil fracking companies in the U.S., such promises may become reality. For instance, there is a strong chance that Trump will choose Harold Hamm as his Energy Secretary. Hamm is the CEO of fracking giant Continental Resources.
With fracking seemingly backed by Trump, the natural gas industry could be the biggest single energy winner, as we recently outlined. It’s a cheap and fairly clean form of energy. And much of it is produced from the U.S.’s own deposits.
But higher levels of U.S. oil and gas production, when the world market is already oversupplied, will hurt prices. Oil prices, for example, are already less than half of what they were in early 2014. Extra U.S. supply will only add more downward pressure.
U.S. coal’s prospects will continue to darken
Arguably, Trump has talked up coal more than any other fuel. He has promised to save the coal industry through deregulation and by ending the Obama government’s moratorium on new mining on federal lands.
Coal prices have recovered somewhat this year. But this is mainly due to lower production and supply in the U.S. and China, rather than increased demand. One reason for lower U.S. production is the numerous U.S. coal company bankruptcies – and thus reduced supply.
Although Trump says he wants to rejuvenate the U.S. coal industry, he may not be able to do much. The market forces of supply and demand ultimately determine global energy prices, including that of coal. According to the International Energy Agency, China’s declining coal consumption will continue to reduce demand for U.S. coal exports, which fell by 23 percent last year and another 32 percent during the first 6 months of 2016.
And with demand shifting away from coal and towards natural gas for the country’s power generation, Trump will have very few policy instruments at hand to reverse the U.S. coal industry’s decline. And if he is able to save coal jobs, this may translate into higher employment… and thus higher coal production. Any additional supply would hurt coal prices.
Renewables will continue to shine – regardless of Trump
If Trump enacts his stated policies, the biggest loser could be clean energy. After all, he has been very clear about his thoughts on climate change.
He has called global warming a hoax. President-elect Trump has promised to cancel the Paris climate agreement – which aims to boost the world’s response to climate change through a number of joint targets to fight global warming. And Trump wants to end U.S. funding of UN climate programmes.
Additionally, his support for fossil fuels may weaken demand for renewable energy.
Trump’s position has some worried that the Paris climate agreement could become badly damaged. It could be similar to the failure of the Kyoto climate treaty after the previous Republican U.S. president, George W. Bush, abandoned it in 2001.
It’s unlikely that the world – including Asia – will take Trump’s intended moves lying down this time, though. And the difference could well come down to China.
Back in the Kyoto days, China gave very little support to climate talks and agreements. But today, China is a substantially bigger global economic force. It’s also very polluted, which is a serious political crisis for its government.
The government is now among the world’s biggest renewable energy supporters and is working at combating global warming. In 2014, Presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama implemented the U.S.-China joint climate accord to reduce carbon emissions by 2030. Then in September this year, the two countries formally committed to the Paris climate agreement.
And last year saw China as the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy.
At the recent UN Global Warming summit, China made clear that if the U.S. pulls out of the Paris agreement, China is going to continue to work towards a greener economy. This is good news for the world’s solar, hydro and wind companies.
What’s more, the U.S. is experiencing a boom in the clean energy sector that has little to do with the climate change debate. As we recently noted, renewables are increasingly cost competitive with fossil fuels across many markets.
And if Trump wants to limit wind and solar, he will have a fight within his own Republican party. It was a Republican Congress that passed legislation to implement tax credits for wind and solar power last December. And the 5 U.S. states with the highest proportion of power generated by wind energy all have Republican governors.
Over 200,000 Americans are employed in the solar industry – double the 2010 figure. The U.S. Bureau of Labor recently projected that the country’s fastest growing occupation (in relative terms) between 2014 and 2024 will be “wind turbine technician.” Although the absolute number of new jobs is low, the anticipated growth and overall trend is still notable.
Once he’s president, Trump may soften his stance on renewable energy and climate agreements. But even if he doesn’t, the boom in renewables will carry on regardless.
To profit from Trump’s plans to expand U.S. natural gas production, the First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index ETF (New York Stock Exchange; ticker FCG) is an option. It focuses on companies that generate most of their revenue from natural gas exploration and production.
And to invest in the growing renewable energy sector, the PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE; ticker: PBD) offers an easy, globally well-diversified way to gain exposure.
For the complete picture on how Trump will impact markets – in particular Asia’s – make sure to read our latest report on how “Asia is Trumped!” You can download your copy here.
Others market experts are struggling to be upbeat. Kim Iskyan, who runs Singaporebased market research firm Truewealth, tells Barron’s Asia that he advises buying gold or sitting on cash until the volatility subsides. “Just sit still for a little while,” he says.
Kim Iskyan, founder of investment research firm Truewealth Publishing, tells Barron’s Asia he thinks consumer and export oriented names in Hong Kong and China could rally as “she’s much more of a pragmatist, and the chances of a trade war between the U.S. and China would be a lot lower.” Trump has made no bones about his loathing of China: He wants to slap massive import tariffs on the world’s secondbiggest economy.
Against all expectations, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States yesterday. And markets didn’t like it.
“Donald Trump’s election victory is unleashing shockwaves throughout financial markets as investors scramble to gauge the impact of the White House campaign that defied the odds,” Bloomberg explained. “Victorious Donald Trump is the devil Wall Street doesn’t know,” said another headline.
What should you do?
First of all, take a deep breath and:
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Legal disclaimer: The insight, recommendations and analysis presented here are based on corporate filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. They are presented for the purposes of general information only. These may contain errors and we make no promises as to the accuracy or usefulness of the information we present. You should not make any investment decision based solely on what you read here.